The Trouble with Oil Price Predictions

The Trouble with Oil Price Predictions

Predicting oil prices is notoriously difficult because oil prices reflect both supply and demand dynamics. Of course, supply issues garner the lion’s share of the media’s attention – often around geopolitical shocks – and are inherently unpredictable. Nevertheless, in reality, the demand side of the equation dominates sustained swings in…

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Author Profile

Lakshman Achuthan is the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). He also serves as the managing editor of ECRI-produced forecasting publications. Over nearly 30 years of analyzing business cycles, he has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, FOX Business News, the Washington Post, Forbes and many other publications. He is also a frequent guest on business and financial news programs on CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters and MSNBC. Achuthan has been a featured speaker at John Mauldin’s Investor Conference and the Levy Institute’s Minsky Conference. In 2004, he co-authored Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy.

Achuthan met his mentor, Geoffrey H. Moore, in 1990 and was immediately fascinated by Moore’s unique global approach to analyzing business cycles. After working together for years, with co-founder Anirvan Banerji, the three left Columbia University to start ECRI in 1996.

Achuthan currently serves on the Board of Economists for Time Magazine, on the Board of Governors for the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, and as a trustee on the boards of several other foundations. He received an undergraduate degree from Fairleigh Dickinson University and a graduate degree from Long Island University. Follow him on LinkedIn and on Twitter at @businesscycle.

Author Profile

Anirvan Banerji is the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Additionally, he is the editor-in-chief of ECRI’s forecasting publications and is the co-author of Beating the Business Cycle: How to Predict and Profit from Turning Points in the Economy. Banerji has been an invited speaker at events ranging from the Eurostat colloquium on modern tools for business cycle analysis to the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer conference.

Banerji worked closely with Geoffrey H. Moore since 1986 at Columbia University's Center for International Business Cycle Research and co-founded ECRI with Moore and Achuthan in 1996. Banerji currently serves on the New York City Economic Advisory Panel and is also a past President of the Forecasters Club of New York. He has an engineering degree from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur and graduate degrees from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad and Columbia University.

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